Keywords
managerial optimism
mergers and acquisitions
construct validity
Brazil
How to Cite
Abstract
Purpose – We examine the validity of conference-call tone as a proxy for managerial optimism and its relationship with M&A performance.
Theoretical framework – Upper Echelons Theory, bounded rationality, and systems thinking link executive interpretation, selective attention, and implementation feedback.
Design/methodology/approach – An explanatory sequential design was used to combine data from 264 firm-years across 23 Brazilian firms. System GMM was used for 230 observations across 22 firms. Sensitivity checks were performed, and four acquisition cases were examined. The two authors individually reviewed AI-assisted classifications of 1,000 inventory units before comparing them.
Findings – Primary GMM does not support either hypothesis. Positive ROA associations in alternative specifications do not establish post-completion moderation. ROE diagnostics are weaker. The cases demonstrate how expectations are formed, modified, and updated during execution.
Practical and social implications of the research – Text analytics should screen communication rather than diagnose executives. Boards and investors should examine milestones, risks, and corrective action.
Originality/value – Construct-validity assessment and qualitative evidence clarify interpretations of managerial expectations during M&A execution in an emerging market.
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